Often times recently the fledgling author would be in a state of 'analysis paralysis' so as to seeking more valuable information about being a value investor. Countless, priceless scripts had been published with most SUPPOSEDLY "familiar" authors (as a self-proclaimed value investor), this had brought along much wisdom in words for the fledgling's juvenile thinking to endeavor in pursuit of much more understanding about the subject and hoping that eventually some of it would be retained to attain some form of prosperity.
Given much of the fact, stocks v. bonds (barely tackled) v. precious metals. The author would clearly get ahead of himself and still stick with investing in what had been the primary source and also what had always been the foundation of a developing economy (may it be the U.S. economy, The Philippines economy, etc.) which is as said by "Uncle" John here at the last paragraph concerning the uncertainty the investor's will certainly always be facing.
------------------------------
John M. Templeton
Lyford Cay, Nassau, Bahamas
June 15, 2005
MEMORANDUM
Financial Chaos - probably in many nations in the next five years. The word chaos is chosen
to express likelihood of reduced profit margin at the same time as acceleration in cost of
living.
Increasingly often, people ask my opinion on what is likely to happen financially. I am now
thinking that the dangers are more numerous and larger than ever before in my lifetime.
Quite likely, in the early months of 2005, the peak of prosperity is behind us.
In the past century, protection could be obtained by keeping your net worth in cash or
government bonds. Now, the surplus capacities are so great that most currencies and bonds
are likely to continue losing their purchasing power.
Mortgages and other forms of debts are over tenfold greater now than ever before 1970,
which can cause manifold increases in bankruptcy auctions.
Surplus capacity, which leads to intense competition, has already shown devastating effects
on companies who operate airlines and is now beginning to show in companies in ocean
shipping and other activities. Also, the present surpluses of cash and liquid assets have
pushed yields on bonds and mortgages almost to zero when adjusted for higher cost of
living. Clearly, major corrections are likely in the next few years.
Most of the methods of universities and other schools which require residence have become
hopelessly obsolete. Probably over half of the universities in the world will disappear quickly
over the next thirty years.
Obsolescence is likely to have a devastating effect in a wide variety of human activities,
especially in those where advancement is hindered by labor unions or other bureaucracies
or by government regulations.
Increasing freedom of competition is likely to cause most established institutions to
disappear with the next fifty years, especially in nations where there are limits on free
competition.
Accelerating competition is likely to cause profit margins to continue to decrease and even
become negative in various industries. Over tenfold more persons hopelessly indebted leads
to multiplying bankruptcies not only for them but for many businesses that extend credit
without collateral. Voters are likely to enact rescue subsidies, which transfer the debts to
governments, such as Fannie May and Freddie Mac.
Research and discoveries and efficiency are likely to continue to accelerate. Probably, as
quickly as fifty years, as much as ninety percent of education will be done by electronics.
Now, with almost one hundred independent nations on earth and rapid advancements in
communication, the top one percent of people are likely to progress more rapidly than the
others. Such top one percent may consist of those who are multi-millionaires and also, those
who are innovators and also, those with top intellectual abilities. Comparisons show that
prosperity flows toward those nations having most freedom of competition.
Especially, electronic computers are likely to become helpful in all human activities
including even persons who have not yet learned to read.
Hopefully, many of you can help us to find published journals and websites and electronic
search engines to help us benefit from accelerating research and discoveries.
Not yet have I found any better method to prosper during the future financial chaos, which
is likely to last many years, than to keep your net worth in shares of those corporations that
have proven to have the widest profit margins and the most rapidly increasing profits.
Earning power is likely to continue to be valuable, especially if diversified among many
nations.**
"The best, perhaps the only, durable education is self education."
Seymour Chatman
Given much of the fact, stocks v. bonds (barely tackled) v. precious metals. The author would clearly get ahead of himself and still stick with investing in what had been the primary source and also what had always been the foundation of a developing economy (may it be the U.S. economy, The Philippines economy, etc.) which is as said by "Uncle" John here at the last paragraph concerning the uncertainty the investor's will certainly always be facing.
------------------------------
John M. Templeton
Lyford Cay, Nassau, Bahamas
June 15, 2005
MEMORANDUM
Financial Chaos - probably in many nations in the next five years. The word chaos is chosen
to express likelihood of reduced profit margin at the same time as acceleration in cost of
living.
Increasingly often, people ask my opinion on what is likely to happen financially. I am now
thinking that the dangers are more numerous and larger than ever before in my lifetime.
Quite likely, in the early months of 2005, the peak of prosperity is behind us.
In the past century, protection could be obtained by keeping your net worth in cash or
government bonds. Now, the surplus capacities are so great that most currencies and bonds
are likely to continue losing their purchasing power.
Mortgages and other forms of debts are over tenfold greater now than ever before 1970,
which can cause manifold increases in bankruptcy auctions.
Surplus capacity, which leads to intense competition, has already shown devastating effects
on companies who operate airlines and is now beginning to show in companies in ocean
shipping and other activities. Also, the present surpluses of cash and liquid assets have
pushed yields on bonds and mortgages almost to zero when adjusted for higher cost of
living. Clearly, major corrections are likely in the next few years.
Most of the methods of universities and other schools which require residence have become
hopelessly obsolete. Probably over half of the universities in the world will disappear quickly
over the next thirty years.
Obsolescence is likely to have a devastating effect in a wide variety of human activities,
especially in those where advancement is hindered by labor unions or other bureaucracies
or by government regulations.
Increasing freedom of competition is likely to cause most established institutions to
disappear with the next fifty years, especially in nations where there are limits on free
competition.
Accelerating competition is likely to cause profit margins to continue to decrease and even
become negative in various industries. Over tenfold more persons hopelessly indebted leads
to multiplying bankruptcies not only for them but for many businesses that extend credit
without collateral. Voters are likely to enact rescue subsidies, which transfer the debts to
governments, such as Fannie May and Freddie Mac.
Research and discoveries and efficiency are likely to continue to accelerate. Probably, as
quickly as fifty years, as much as ninety percent of education will be done by electronics.
Now, with almost one hundred independent nations on earth and rapid advancements in
communication, the top one percent of people are likely to progress more rapidly than the
others. Such top one percent may consist of those who are multi-millionaires and also, those
who are innovators and also, those with top intellectual abilities. Comparisons show that
prosperity flows toward those nations having most freedom of competition.
Especially, electronic computers are likely to become helpful in all human activities
including even persons who have not yet learned to read.
Hopefully, many of you can help us to find published journals and websites and electronic
search engines to help us benefit from accelerating research and discoveries.
Not yet have I found any better method to prosper during the future financial chaos, which
is likely to last many years, than to keep your net worth in shares of those corporations that
have proven to have the widest profit margins and the most rapidly increasing profits.
Earning power is likely to continue to be valuable, especially if diversified among many
nations.**
"The best, perhaps the only, durable education is self education."
Seymour Chatman