It is rare for me to detect any person who may be overt to share some of his/her fundamental expertise in the local bourse. But internet does have its way around in sharing much valuable information.
Previously, I was able to read through a couple of articles from Mr. Jesse Colombo (an investor and Forbes columnist who has worked as an anti-economic bubble activist since 2004):
First, Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise; and Here's What The Philippine Bubble Deniers Are Getting Wrong.
It seemed quite implausible when I first browsed through the free information provided. But somehow with the cited figures and facts-along with the commentary of certain local (Philippine) finance personalities in dissension, or simply in disagreement with Mr. Colombo's articles. One may wonder that certain facts must be understood clearly here in order not to be misinformed. Whereby, through experience, I learned to value previous and recorded tangible data rather than projections and dogmatic assumptions.
Specific discussion that I would like to repeat here may be found on Paragraph 8 of Mr. Colombo's second written response article (a week after his initial article). Whereby he talks about the CHEAP CREDIT fueling the current property boom and, in continuance (on paragraph 15 and 16), possibly cause a more detrimental effect in the future to the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) which is already down at a pitiful 20-21% from estimated high of 7,410 down to approximately 5,910 since May 2013-present.
This type of a credit bubble post-2009 crisis development also does not exempt any 'realized' profit in any annual report/s. To set an example, NET PROFITS rise of any conglomerate mentioned may be ensued from such CHEAP CREDIT and does not 'disprove the existence of a bubble.' (Paragraph 26)
I wish not to discredit the government (plus other concerned reporters) in its dispute over this sensitive topic and definitely it is its duty to do so. However, in an junior security purchaser's side, these information should exhort one (a PSEI investor) to be aware about any future or possibly already happening corrective episodes in the index. Whether the gov't wish to inter these thoughts; facts and figures speak for themselves and may not be ignored once the corresponding developments ensue.
For me an investor should not be fretting over any distinctive fact/s where ever we are (either in the bull or bear cycle). It should be that prior to engaging in investing activities, one should know already his/her investing limits and financial exposure to the market through intensive research and sticking to proper proven investing rules (may be modified for personal gratification) so as to maintain a reasonable amount of rest at night.
Facts are recorded, studied and provided without any prejudice present.
As I have recalled and re-read in one of Mr. James Montier books, black swans or bubbles must have its identifier changed to being a 'Predictable Surprise/s'. He outlined these three logical and 'defining characteristics':
1. At least some people are aware of the problem.
2. The problem gets worse over time.
3. Eventually the problem explodes into a crisis, much to the shock of most.
Anderson Cooper or not--Fact and its consequences always claim its spot under any concealment.
"In investing, as with life in general, ultimate victory usually goes to the doers, not to the talkers." Jason Zweig
References:
1. "Jesse Colombo - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia." Wikipedia.org. December 10, 2013. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Colombo>
2. "PCOMP Quote - Philippine Stock Exchange PSEi Index - Bloomberg." Bloomberg.com. December 10, 2013. <http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PCOMP:IND>
3. Colombo, Jesse. "Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise - Forbes." Forbes.com. December 10, 2013. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/21/heres-why-the-philippines-economic-miracle-is-really-a-bubble-in-disguise/2/>
4. Colombo, Jesse. "Here's What The Philippine Bubble Deniers Are Getting Wrong - Forbes." Forbes.com. December 10, 2013. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/28/heres-what-the-philippine-bubble-deniers-are-getting-wrong/>
5. Montier, James. The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2010
6. Jojo Robles. "Bubble, bubble - Manila Standard Today." Manilastandardtoday.com.December 10, 2013. <http://manilastandardtoday.com/2013/11/26/bubble-bubble/>
Previously, I was able to read through a couple of articles from Mr. Jesse Colombo (an investor and Forbes columnist who has worked as an anti-economic bubble activist since 2004):
First, Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise; and Here's What The Philippine Bubble Deniers Are Getting Wrong.
It seemed quite implausible when I first browsed through the free information provided. But somehow with the cited figures and facts-along with the commentary of certain local (Philippine) finance personalities in dissension, or simply in disagreement with Mr. Colombo's articles. One may wonder that certain facts must be understood clearly here in order not to be misinformed. Whereby, through experience, I learned to value previous and recorded tangible data rather than projections and dogmatic assumptions.
Specific discussion that I would like to repeat here may be found on Paragraph 8 of Mr. Colombo's second written response article (a week after his initial article). Whereby he talks about the CHEAP CREDIT fueling the current property boom and, in continuance (on paragraph 15 and 16), possibly cause a more detrimental effect in the future to the Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) which is already down at a pitiful 20-21% from estimated high of 7,410 down to approximately 5,910 since May 2013-present.
This type of a credit bubble post-2009 crisis development also does not exempt any 'realized' profit in any annual report/s. To set an example, NET PROFITS rise of any conglomerate mentioned may be ensued from such CHEAP CREDIT and does not 'disprove the existence of a bubble.' (Paragraph 26)
I wish not to discredit the government (plus other concerned reporters) in its dispute over this sensitive topic and definitely it is its duty to do so. However, in an junior security purchaser's side, these information should exhort one (a PSEI investor) to be aware about any future or possibly already happening corrective episodes in the index. Whether the gov't wish to inter these thoughts; facts and figures speak for themselves and may not be ignored once the corresponding developments ensue.
For me an investor should not be fretting over any distinctive fact/s where ever we are (either in the bull or bear cycle). It should be that prior to engaging in investing activities, one should know already his/her investing limits and financial exposure to the market through intensive research and sticking to proper proven investing rules (may be modified for personal gratification) so as to maintain a reasonable amount of rest at night.
Facts are recorded, studied and provided without any prejudice present.
As I have recalled and re-read in one of Mr. James Montier books, black swans or bubbles must have its identifier changed to being a 'Predictable Surprise/s'. He outlined these three logical and 'defining characteristics':
1. At least some people are aware of the problem.
2. The problem gets worse over time.
3. Eventually the problem explodes into a crisis, much to the shock of most.
Anderson Cooper or not--Fact and its consequences always claim its spot under any concealment.
"In investing, as with life in general, ultimate victory usually goes to the doers, not to the talkers." Jason Zweig
References:
1. "Jesse Colombo - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia." Wikipedia.org. December 10, 2013. <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Colombo>
2. "PCOMP Quote - Philippine Stock Exchange PSEi Index - Bloomberg." Bloomberg.com. December 10, 2013. <http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PCOMP:IND>
3. Colombo, Jesse. "Here's Why The Philippines' Economic Miracle Is Really A Bubble In Disguise - Forbes." Forbes.com. December 10, 2013. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/21/heres-why-the-philippines-economic-miracle-is-really-a-bubble-in-disguise/2/>
4. Colombo, Jesse. "Here's What The Philippine Bubble Deniers Are Getting Wrong - Forbes." Forbes.com. December 10, 2013. <http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/11/28/heres-what-the-philippine-bubble-deniers-are-getting-wrong/>
5. Montier, James. The Little Book of Behavioral Investing: How Not to Be Your Own Worst Enemy. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 2010
6. Jojo Robles. "Bubble, bubble - Manila Standard Today." Manilastandardtoday.com.December 10, 2013. <http://manilastandardtoday.com/2013/11/26/bubble-bubble/>