It is amazing to have such information available online; many thanks to Financial Times online (ft.com) and that it was able to provide me most of my value information to do some quantitative analysis.
Despite the despicable performance of the local bourse, this fledgeling investor had found some new focus on dissecting 1 and ½ annual summary for at least a couple of days of effort- 1 and ½ because AP’s balance and cash flow statement are yet to be done. I may promise that these discussions are not fully of an impeccable work but are always subject to corrections, but the try hard actuary still would prefer his own work compared to anyone else’s trend assessment and unsolicited predictions.
However, time is of the essence, and at times this type of information is no longer or might not be much more applicable to the current situation of the market. And regarding to its applicability as an accurate ‘purchase point’ when as identified a potential ‘GROWTH’ stock. To have a brief but meaningful way of deciphering this ‘applicability’; I may repeat as was accurately stated before--poring over the Great Value Investor’s work, “Characteristically, stocks thought to have good prospects sell at relatively high prices. How can the investor tell whether or not the price is too high? We think that there is no good answer to this question—in fact we are inclined to think that even if one knew for a certainty just what a company is fated to earn over a long period of years, it would still be impossible to tell what is a fair price to pay for it today.”
Now focusing on the great analysts’ predictions that are popping out everywhere during a full blown to a dying Bull Run (denial stage) cycle. Probably this down trend that had been happening might not be one of the things accurately PREDICTED and/or expected by these qualified professionals as had been found in the following short statements, “Our fearless forecast is 7,000 by yearend”, “meaning the investors are willing to pay a higher multiple for the Philippine market”, “THE PHILIPPINE Stock Exchange index (PSEi) could hit 7,000”, etc.
The PSEI currently (December 25, 2013) is in a (negative) 9.92% return at 5,835.13 from the 6,477.94 level three (3) months ago (during the time these forecast/conjectures were made).
I guess there is always unlimited opportunities to predict the next Bull Run or Bear Market every now and then, having such expectations that these types of enthusiasts to constantly predict what may or may not happen in the PSEI’s future in 2014 and beyond. I may apply as one of Montier’s works (which worth mentioning at least 2 here) stated that either there is the presence of (1) ‘ceteris paribus’ defense (something happened that we did not expect e.g. the devastation of typhoon Haiyan-far away from Metro-Manila (business capital), recognition of one corrupt Philippine official to another and their hidden modus operandi, etc.) or the (2) “it just hasn’t happened yet” defense that are available for their fallible projections to support. But I wish not to discredit anyone this Christmas Day; probably the turnaround is just around the corner. Who knows? It is just as waiting for the next accurate prediction when it has already happened- A wonderful and accurate technical analysis, Hindsight 20/20 it is. and so.. Cheers! :)
Japanese's "Nana Korobi Ya Oki"
versus
Proverbs 24:16's "For though the righteous fall seven times, they rise again, but the wicked stumble when calamity strikes."
references:
1. “Mystockquery.com.” Mystockquery.com. December 25, 2013. <http://mystockquery.com/>
2. “PSEi seen to hit 7,000 by yearend.” Bworldonline.com . December 25, 2013. <http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Economy&title=PSEi-seen-to-hit-7,000-by-yearend&id=77188>
3. Loyola, James. “PSEI seen to hit 8,000-9,000 in 2014.” December 25, 2013. <http://www.mb.com.ph/psei-seen-to-hit-8000-9000-in-2014/> Montier, James.
4. “Seven Sins of Fund Management.” Er.ethz.ch. December 25, 2013. <http://www.er.ethz.ch/teaching/Seven_Sins_fund_Management.pdf>
5. Graham, Benjamin and Dodd, David L. (1988). Security Analysis. United States of America: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Despite the despicable performance of the local bourse, this fledgeling investor had found some new focus on dissecting 1 and ½ annual summary for at least a couple of days of effort- 1 and ½ because AP’s balance and cash flow statement are yet to be done. I may promise that these discussions are not fully of an impeccable work but are always subject to corrections, but the try hard actuary still would prefer his own work compared to anyone else’s trend assessment and unsolicited predictions.
However, time is of the essence, and at times this type of information is no longer or might not be much more applicable to the current situation of the market. And regarding to its applicability as an accurate ‘purchase point’ when as identified a potential ‘GROWTH’ stock. To have a brief but meaningful way of deciphering this ‘applicability’; I may repeat as was accurately stated before--poring over the Great Value Investor’s work, “Characteristically, stocks thought to have good prospects sell at relatively high prices. How can the investor tell whether or not the price is too high? We think that there is no good answer to this question—in fact we are inclined to think that even if one knew for a certainty just what a company is fated to earn over a long period of years, it would still be impossible to tell what is a fair price to pay for it today.”
Now focusing on the great analysts’ predictions that are popping out everywhere during a full blown to a dying Bull Run (denial stage) cycle. Probably this down trend that had been happening might not be one of the things accurately PREDICTED and/or expected by these qualified professionals as had been found in the following short statements, “Our fearless forecast is 7,000 by yearend”, “meaning the investors are willing to pay a higher multiple for the Philippine market”, “THE PHILIPPINE Stock Exchange index (PSEi) could hit 7,000”, etc.
The PSEI currently (December 25, 2013) is in a (negative) 9.92% return at 5,835.13 from the 6,477.94 level three (3) months ago (during the time these forecast/conjectures were made).
I guess there is always unlimited opportunities to predict the next Bull Run or Bear Market every now and then, having such expectations that these types of enthusiasts to constantly predict what may or may not happen in the PSEI’s future in 2014 and beyond. I may apply as one of Montier’s works (which worth mentioning at least 2 here) stated that either there is the presence of (1) ‘ceteris paribus’ defense (something happened that we did not expect e.g. the devastation of typhoon Haiyan-far away from Metro-Manila (business capital), recognition of one corrupt Philippine official to another and their hidden modus operandi, etc.) or the (2) “it just hasn’t happened yet” defense that are available for their fallible projections to support. But I wish not to discredit anyone this Christmas Day; probably the turnaround is just around the corner. Who knows? It is just as waiting for the next accurate prediction when it has already happened- A wonderful and accurate technical analysis, Hindsight 20/20 it is. and so.. Cheers! :)
Japanese's "Nana Korobi Ya Oki"
versus
Proverbs 24:16's "For though the righteous fall seven times, they rise again, but the wicked stumble when calamity strikes."
references:
1. “Mystockquery.com.” Mystockquery.com. December 25, 2013. <http://mystockquery.com/>
2. “PSEi seen to hit 7,000 by yearend.” Bworldonline.com . December 25, 2013. <http://www.bworldonline.com/content.php?section=Economy&title=PSEi-seen-to-hit-7,000-by-yearend&id=77188>
3. Loyola, James. “PSEI seen to hit 8,000-9,000 in 2014.” December 25, 2013. <http://www.mb.com.ph/psei-seen-to-hit-8000-9000-in-2014/> Montier, James.
4. “Seven Sins of Fund Management.” Er.ethz.ch. December 25, 2013. <http://www.er.ethz.ch/teaching/Seven_Sins_fund_Management.pdf>
5. Graham, Benjamin and Dodd, David L. (1988). Security Analysis. United States of America: McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.